Getting the job done – Rafa advances to the Australian Open finals

Great numbers & summary Jim!
Federer has played his best aggressive tennis, and Nadal has daunted the audience with all the impossible returns. It is the most creative tennis mache I’ve ever seen. With the number, I think if Roger can serve more 1st serve in, it can certainly help his performance.

Great write Jim!
I thought Fed never looked this good! His serves & forehand let him down big time in this big game
He is now more aggresive on his returns, improved his back hand and has also worked on his rallies
I think what brought him down was his impatience – on big points he gambled and walked into a trap by too many approaches. He should work more on his rallies and hit more to rafa’s backhand.
The good news is fed is going to entertain us in 2012 – is it only me who find only fed’s matches exciting?

Whey didn’t Roger move over just a bit move on return of serve. I’ve played “Lefty’s”, no one with the kick and spin. But, after years of this stuff, I’d hope Roger could handle better. Move over, cover your backhand. I did think for a moment he had it.
Then In the 4th, Fed at 4-3 going for a break, Roger’s forehand misses the cross court wide, Rafa, win that and breaks back to win the set. Again, in the 4th set, forehand errors down three Rogers comes back for break point, Only to make yet two more forehand errors. No one runs a ball down and makes a winner better than Rafa.
Roger went off the boil a couple of times. It looked to me he stopped doing what worked.
I know, I know the spin is hard to handle. But, Rafa is the master of the three spots. Bugy wipe, the off balance two hander, and the out wide serve. Where, Roger must play, all the shots, to win with less error’s.
Reading down deeper. I see the the pattern is to set up buy going right at Rafa;s forehand, I was more surprised to did not slice the return of serve more. I do know that ball is moving all over the place. And, Rafa get to everything. The game went to less errors!.

if a winner owns the loser, then it follows that Rafa owns Roger.
Forget about this clay versus grass, hard court stuff. Roger has played all his tennis career on clay as have Rafa. (I don’t know this, but I’d bet that both Roger and Rafa learned to play the game on Clay, both in Europe.)

Forget about the surface speed. The alleys and base lines and service box are identical regardless the surface, and you can choose any racquet you need to win.

Roger is a graceful loser (some times), as is Rafa. FORGET ABOUT THIS SURFACE SH.. Rafa
and Roger play to win, with no excuses, and don’t like to lose.
joseph

Excellent observation Jim. Roger never seems to serve his best against Rafa. He presses and tries to be too good. Rafa on the other hand seems to focus on hs plan and raise his level.

I think that the winning record that rafael holds against roger boils down to percentage tennis based on rafaels strengths (left handed game) against rogers weakiness( backhand). Even though Roger is still the most smooth and creative player, and beautiful to watch i have ever seen, he wont play the game to beat rafael based on rafaels weakiness (backhand) like the djoker does even though he has not focused on the tactics yet do not mean he want, roger is still the leader in major titles (16) and he is very proud and obviously stubborn, but its about time to become a warrior and tactically do what it takes to beat his toughest opponent.

Jim,

Your analysis seems to me to be on target. Roger’s inability to get a higher percentage of first serves in along with a greater number of unforced errors often put him in a catch-up position. However, I also think that Rafa’s uncanny knack of focusing so intently on critical points enables him to produce winning shots, especially first serves, in clutch situations, and contributes to putting Roger on the defensive.

I’m puzzled -serving out wide in the Ad court to a righty is to his forehand ??? not backhand

Hi Jim

Your analysis is interesting and makes sense. Do you agree with Patrick McEnroe’s in game analysis of the Roger and Rafa match? Patrick said that when Roger came in to the net he should have hit his approach shot to Rafa’s backhand side. Almost every approach to Rafa’s forehand resulted in a loss of the point for Fed, with Rafa making very acrobatic shots to win some of these points. Patrick’s point was that Rafa is too good with his forehand and Roger’s probability of winning the point increases when he approaches to the backhand.

HI Jim, I think that your analysis is correct. I also think that Federer is not using the right tactics against Rafa. He should try to temporize his shots sometimes with more deep topspin shots to Rafa’s backhand and not go for winners all the time. Pick his opportunities more. He also came in on approach shots to Rafa’s forehand, big mistake in my mind. Roger has the best closing forehand in tennis but tries to use it sometimes in the wrong situations. He is also a very emotional player(inside). He has learned not to show it but it is there and affects his game in tight situations. He needs to have more awareness of those situations and try to be more consistant like Rafa. Rafa lets Roger beat himself. No one can beat Roger if he is completely on his game. In order to win more slams against the top guys Roger has to learn to improve his consistancy with more patience, and deep spin. He can no longer count on hitting winners from imposible positions all the time. Tim Briellmaier USPTA pro

The Fireworks stoppage clearly bother Rogers start. Up. after the delay… He was stiff. And out of rhythm

I thought. Rafael hit some incredible shots. From impossible positions on the ct.

When roger. Hiit. Aggressive ground strokes, Rafael counterpunched his way to neutral

Roger hit. Out .. Rafael. Was counting on errors playing a lot of defensive tennis

I though roger let Rafael off the. Hook. In key moments

First set … Roger played pressure tennis

Second set…..fireworks display a factor

third set…. Rodger. Loses gtiebreaker …. Pivotal

Fouth set…..rodger throws the kitchen sink at Rafael….but relaxed a few key moments when he though the point was over….it hurt him psychologically..

Too much pressure when behind…..

There are two things that need to happen for Federer to beat Nadal. The Swiss need to serve extremely well, and he needs to hit his backhand down the line with confidence at any given moment(Djokovic is doing this very well). My other observation is they way Federer played in the first set. There was a pattern. He was hitting off-speed forehand crosscourt (no too deep) to Nadal’s backhand. He would do this two or three times in a row and then set up to hit a forehand to the open court. It was working!! But he abandoned the strategic. I guess that since he has all the shots in the game, he rather be creative.
Simplicity will prevail on the big points. There is not second guessing. Nadal strategic against Federer has always been the same. Attack the backhand!!! He is committed to it because it works. As great as he is I believe it would be very hard to coach Federer into committing to a game plan.

Jim,

I played my first match and lost badly.No need to guess whom I lost to.A terrible pusher.I have never seen a guy who pushes so badly.His serve is nightmare so much so that his serve’s second bounce is inside the baseline.I took two service games to figure that out.

The one plus point I found in him was his willingness to run all day.

The one mistake I did was to go with mentality to smash him out of the court.I have always been with great shot makers.Mcenroe,Edberg,Becker,Sampras and now Fed.I will always want to play a shot making tennis even if losing rather than a pushing winning game.When I was down I thought /reflected whether I want to push or swing and I made a conscious decision to swing.

I rushed,was nervous made half hearted offense but I swung….I am not playing Wimbledon final,a conscious decision to be myself.

The plus point was my serve was good, I coming to grip with Raonic grip had three aces and three double faults.

The general pattern of play was
on my serve
a good serve…avg return ..I blow my forehand ….he somehow retrieves…I hit another power shot he some how return again and my third shot is out of frustration is in the net or out.

On his serve the pattern of play is same as his serve is well…..new born babies /our grand parent are much better in serving I mean more SANE.I just cannot describe how cranky that serve was…most of times the contact point was head level or may be shoulder level….too much.

It was good learning experience.I need to relax,be loose and not try to blow someone of the court.

Yes my shoulder also has no pain.

Let me know if you have any thoughts.

Thanks
Santh

Jim good call on the Murray Djokovic match – yep it turned on Murray not having his best 1st serve available and Djokovic kept the second serve under pressure!

Sorry, wasn’t watching, but instead playing my best doubles ever…my footwork is bringing up my game.

Your stats are very illuminating in retrospect. However, if the player hasn’t got the mental ability to keep track of what’s happening during the match and raise his physical level of play (adjust) he’ll probably lose. I think the mental side of tennis strategy is critical. Loved you comment about Brad Gilbert. His book, “Winning Ugly” is one of the best at exploring the mental aspect of tennis.

It’s a very informative compare for both players that would help many of us tennis folks to think and play better strategies wise.

GREAT PLAYING BY FEDERER HE SLIGHTLY WANED TOWARDS THE END OVAERALL GREAT FOR A MAN AT HIS AGE A TRUE CHAMPION RAFAS PLAY IS GETTINGTOOSTEREOTYPED

Dear Jim

Many thanks for your valuable explanations.
Wish to see you soon.

Noushin

I think Roger’s unforced errors let himself down. Often in the match he needed one point to win the game or one point to bring it back to deuce and he did not allow enough margin of error to secure the point. Rafa is good at return of serve no matter what Roger’s serving percentage is/was.

Great match report Jim. And great comments by Shripathi and Jerome.

I’ve always thought that Rafa has the edge when it comes to intensity and keeping up the pressure during a point.

As Jerome mentions, Roger tends to slice his backhand just at the time when he needs to be upping the pace with a topspin. I’m massively guilty of doing this myself. Slice has its strengths at the appropriate time, but Roger over-relies on the slice I think. Particularly against Rafa.

Oh ps…

Somewhere in the second set, there was a good example. Federer took a few steps forward for receiving Nadals second serve. He stood inside the baseline even before Nadal tossed up the ball. The second servce came… nothing special. And Federer then hit a very conservative slice, basically a rallyshot, back… and out.

Why, if you choose to stand so close for the second serve return do you choose to hit a conservative shot?

I found it rather odd that most of the match analysis stated that Federer made too many mistakes because he attacked so much.

I think that Federer hit HARD too much and attacked too little. Often he would hit a great shot, watched it being great, THEN ran to the net… and got passed. Ofcourse that has to do also with Nadals fantastic court coverage. But again Federer in his approaches seems to want to go forward AND analyse at the same time. I would be really curious what would happen if Federer just would approach inside out, exchanging tempo for pace and take those few steps closer to the net.

My five cents

You are quite right regarding first serve for Federer, but why he produced so many errors on backhand or even more on forehand side? Some slow mo footages show balls hitting by racket frame under famous Fed’s eye-in-contact look. May be it is about time for Roger to switch his racket to 95 or 98 head size? Look at Rafa precision ball placement on a run, almost from 20 feet left and right from side lines with his 100 inch Babolat racket . What you think?

Jim, good summation. I too watched the match and was squirming in my chair during some of those rallies that often ended in unbelievable returns by Raffa. I think even Roger was thinking, ‘What do I have to do to beat this guy?’ I think Roger was lucky to win the first set after giving up a healthy lead, and from then his serve went off and I thought Roger’s mood and body language was not as strong as it had been early on in the first set when he showed us all his amazing skills. I just got the feeling that Roger didn’t think he could beat Raffa. But what a match – and they do bring out the best in one another. Of course, now Raffa must find a way to beat the Joker and he hasn’t been able too in his last six attempts. As fit as Raffa is, Djokovic is definitely fitter, faster, and hits the ball hard and flat. All these attributes takes precious ‘time’ away from Raffa with his high loopy shots. That said, I’m sure its going to be a great fight.

The serve was the difference, but I think you overestimate Rafa’s serving rather than Federer’s poor returns.

Rafa’s serves were rather ordinary, nothing that Federer cannot put into play, and yet, he failed to just put them back. Forget great returns, he was below par in his return game.

He made Nadal look like Goran.

Rafa has served better. When he won the USO.

This was simply very poor execution by Federer. No doubt it is mental.

The third set was outrageous. 25 errors, and Federer still came close. That is two errors EVERY game.

Hats off to Nadal, for executing very well on a simple strategy and compensating for lack of anything else with effort