From: Jim McLennan <jim@essentialtennisinstruction.com>
Subject: Fwd: BNP IW preview
Date: March 10, 2015 at 9:19:02 PM PDT
To: Patrick McLennan <patrickcmclennan10s@gmail.com>

PMac - read the stuff below about Federer serving accuracy - reminds me of Sampras 
Dad

Begin forwarded message:
Date: March 10, 2015 at 3:40:07 PM PDT
Subject: BNP IW preview
From: Jim Fawcette <jfawcette@gmail.com>
To: Jim Fawcette <jfawcette@gmail.com>

Tennis Fanz,

With the BNP Indian Wells draws just completed, it's time for your update. 

BNP Indian Wells Preview

With Serena Williams ending her decade-plus boycott and Rafa trying to repeat his 2007 comeback from injury (when Indian Wells was his first hard court title), this could be the toughest, overall field at a Masters 1000 this year. Of the top names, the only ones missing at this point are Jack Sock and Juan Martin del Potro, both still out with injuries. Aussie teen Thanasi Kokkinakis gets Delpo's wild card (his pic from his tweet after the 18-year-old helped Australia win a Davis Cup tie)

How fast is Indian Wells growing? Well, they're upping ticket prices by as much as 44% for 2016. Ouch!

Mens draw just happened. While the faces are the same, the men's draw is stirred up a tiny bit. Kei Nishikori has reached a career-high 4 (not bad for "Project 45"), while Nadal is down to 3. So, this means a potential Djokovic-Nishikori semi in the top half. But we still see yet another Fed-Rafa semi in the bottom, if they perform to their seeds. 

Projected QFs: (top) Djokovic-Ferrer, Murray-Nishikori, (bottom) Nadal-Raonic, Wawrinka-Federer

I have to agree with Brad Gilbert that Novak Djokovic looks great and could repeat his spectacular 2011, taking three, major titles. Since his favorite surface is s-l-o-w hard courts,  Nole' should be the men's favorite here. 

His biggest challengers are the usual chase: Fed has won 4 of 6 vs Djokovic since early last year, and pushed Djokovic to the last point in the 2014 final, so he's a threat. But Fed is stuck in Rafa's half yet again, and Rafa has an easy draw. I watched Fed take Rafa out at Indian Wells a few years back, so there is hope for Fedfans. 

Rafa has won at BNP multiple times and can play clay-court style ball at IW. You can make the case that Rafa is on track to repeat his 2007 comeback, where he built his confidence on clay, then won his first hard court title at Indian Wells, since Rafa won his first, two comeback titles this time on the Latin America clay swing. But, Rafa hardly looked dominant. He was bullied around the clay courts in a loss to Fabulous Fabio Fognini, struggled against journeyman Carlos Berlocq, going down 6-1 in a tiebreak and getting broken early in the second set, before coming back in both. Even in his runaway title win over friend Juan Monaco, Rafa was dropping forehands shorter than most people's second serves. Luckily for Rafa, Monaca avoids the net like a wily deep-sea fish. 

Still, there is no tonic for ailing tennis games like trophies and Rafa picked up 2 more. 

A lot of the projected fourth-round matches seem questionable to me. Both Cilic and Gulbis are nursing injuries, while Bautista Agut going this far seems a stretch. 

Potential 4th Round Matches: 
(Top) Djokovic-Anderson, Cilic-Ferrer, Murray-Gulbis, Lopez-Nishikori
(Bottom) Raonic-Dimitrov, Simon-Nadal, Wawrinka-Berdych, Bautista Agut-Federer 

Draws:
http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/en/2015-live/draws

Match schedule:
http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/en/schedules/match-schedule 

TV schedule:
http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/en/schedules/tv-schedule 

All main-draw events will be televised with the Tennis Channel getting early rounds and ESPN taking over live coverage by the men's quarters. Matches will be online at ESPN3 (access varies by ISP) and for fee at TennisTV:
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index#sport/tennis/type/upcoming/
http://www.tennistv.com

On the women's side, can we say Serena is "defending" her 2001 title, since she hasn't been back since? I'd say the biggest barrier to Serena winning the WTA side is the increased pressure and visibility. Build up will be huge and emotional-ambiguity of reportedly having family members oppose her return could muddle her focus. Still, Serena's got a pretty easy draw, with only sleeper Garbine Muguruza looking like a threat in her entire half. On seedings, she'd meet Sharapova in yet another final. But Maria's draw is far tougher, with Vika, Bouchard, Woz, Ivanovic, surprise defending champ Panetta and sleeper Madison Keys all in her half. I'm sure the draw is random :) 

~~~~~~~~~

Why Isn't Djokovic's Serve As Effective as Federer's?

The world's top two men have quite similar serves. Although both can hit with pace, contrary to some TV announcers' comments -- Fed's fastest in an ATP event is 140 mph, Nole's 139 mph -- both rely primarily on placement and variety. Both have similar numbers: First serve in, velocity of first, velocity of second. Yet's Fed's serve is clearly more effective. One main reason is the old real-estate saw: Location, Location, Location. 

Look at this graphic from the first set of their most-recent meeting, the final in Dubai a few weeks ago. Every one of Fed's first serves (bottom of screencap from Tennis Channel), save a solitary body serve, is within 10 inches of a line, while Djokovic's are much safer, more conservative. I suspect that Djokovic has more kick on his second, which makes it harder to attack, but can't find numbers to back that up. 

How Fed Beat Djokovic: Round 37

On the surface, Roger Federer's aggressive net play in his title win over Novak Djokovic Sunday seemed futile. He only won 9 of 21 net points. Djokovic, in particular, hit some brilliant backhand passing shots. Fed got passed, lobbed over, and lost a key point on a shanked shot by Djokovic. Here's where we weekend hackers would give up, retreat to the baseline to never leave it uninvited :)  But Fed persevered and won the match -- which provides some lessons for us hackers. <g>

First, Fed completely controlled the pace of play. Nole looked unsettled and leaked forehand errors like the days old, I'd contend because Fed never let him get in rhythm. Second, Fed's net play helped him win 80% of first serve points. Fed won 10 out 12 serve & volley points, which likely made it harder for Nole to return, even when Fed didn't come in. 

Now, you might ask how can Fed be only 9 of 21 at the net, yet 10/12 when serving and volleying? Good question. The serve and volley points includes unreturned serves. Numbers for S&V from Craig O'Shannessy @BrainGameTennis. I put his numbers on a screencap from the Tennis Channel.  

Here are where Fed served when he rushed the net and the results. He won all 7 serve & volley points to Nole's forehand. Numbering positions from 1 to 8, from your right to left. 
1 4/4 -- 3 1/2 -- 4 0/1 -- 5 3/3 -- 8 2/2 
  
Pic: Image from Tennis channel, stats from Craig O'Shannessy ‏@BrainGameTennis 
New Serving Stats from ATP
If you're returning Ivo Karlovic's or Roger Federer's serve and you're ahead 15-40, they've got you right where they want you. Sort of. 
Greg Sharko, the stats guru at the ATP, has some new, speciality numbers. You can see how dominant the serve is on the ATP from the number of times players come back from down 0-40 or 15-40. 
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/03/9/By-The-Numbers-Novak-Costly-Slip.aspx  
This particular graphic is for top 10 players only. Among all players, Ivo Karlovic leads both categories, holding 12 of 12 games when down 15/40 and 78 of 78 games when serving at 40-0. 
  
Unusual Comments from Roger Federer

If you're patient enough to wade through the volume of perhaps-necessary but tedious, repetitious questions, Roger Federer is unusually open for a professional athlete/ celebrity. Some candids of recent note:

On Davis Cup: "It’s been a big burden for me throughout my career,” said Federer, ... “I always feel there is so much guilt put on you” by the national federation or the International Tennis Federation." Now, he doesn't have to do it any more.

On playing Djokovic: "I don't think we have to adjust our games very much against each other, which I think is nice, as well. We can just play our game, and then the better man wins. It's been nice seeing Novak's improvements over all these years. He's become such an unbelievable player, especially the last five, six years, and cleaned up his game so nicely and became the best mover in the game. It's really a pleasure playing against him every single time again."

As in, not being able to play one's style of game against he who shall not be named, perhaps?

Djokovic concurs, "You know, we always make each other play our best tennis. We require from each other the maximum focus and commitment, and that's what raises the quality of the match."" 

On Dubai: Fed lives there, where he just won his 7th title, yet, "I moved into a hotel, to get the feeling of being in a tournament." 

On his 9000th ace: "''I even remember which one it was because I was counting them,'' Federer said. ''It was one of the swinger wides." {early in second set in Dubai final vs Nole'}

On his first meeting with teen sensation Borna Coric: “I can see why he has caused difficulties for some of the top guys, and he still has a lot of room for improvement in his game,” Federer said. “He does a really good job for a big guy, again… Big guys used to come forward. Now they stay at the baseline and move well, so I'm very impressed with that. I think he returns very well, especially off second serves, and that's such a huge part of today's game, I believe.”

Note: This confuses me. Coric is basically a tad smaller than Fed, 6 ft 1 inch 174 lbs, although at barely 18 he can presumably grow. 

 

Federer Beats Djokovic for 7th Dubai Title

Some more thoughts on their Dubai title match. If you told me that Fed only won 39% of second serves vs Djokovic, who won 52% of his own second serves, that he only had a pair of break points in the match, and lost 13 out of 21 net approaches -- but won anyway -- I'd say you were smoking something legal in Colorado. 

Roger Federer gave a lights out serving exhibition, notching his 9,000th career ace with 12 in the match against arguably the best returner in tennis, Novak Djokovic, to win his 7th Dubai title. 

Although it was a 3 and 5 straight sets win the match was extremely tight with Fed's clutch play on break points making the difference: Fed defended all 7 break points he faced while converting the only 2 he earned against Djokovic. Those 9 equal the difference in total points won. Fed broke Djokovic from down love-40 in the second set. Fed leads the world number one 4-2 since 2014, not including a withdrawal at the WTF. 

 

Match summary: 
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/02/8/Dubai-Final-Federer-Djokovic.aspx ﻿

Wilander: Nole' Perhaps Even Better than Rafa and Fed

From next WSJ mag:
"Former No. 1 Wilander suggests the Serbian's best tennis puts him in a class by himself. “He’s so good, he might even be better than the other two. When he’s feeling it and he’s on and he’s fighting, it’s nearly impossible to beat him," Wilander said. "You can’t get the ball through him. Federer and Nadal have people who they don’t necessarily like to play against. Djokovic, I don’t see a player that he minds playing.” - 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tennis-champion-novak-djokovics-power-moves-1424874849?mod=trending_now_3

Caro in Sports Illustrated

I post Caroline's tweet for only one reason, without salacious intent: A reader of my tennis emails, who shall go unnamed, said that "Wozniacki is chubby." 

Really? 

http://www.si.com/swimsuit/2015/models/caroline-wozniacki/photos/8 

http://www.si.com/swim-daily/2015/02/09/caroline-wozniacki-si-swimsuit-issue-2015 

How to Invest in a Tennis Player

Crowdsourcing comes to tennis. Plus, buying tennis seats. Literally. And collectibles. 

BBC: "One such site putting together fans with spare cash and players is InvolvedFan.com.
Run by Miami-based Dan Nagler, it states: "Fans and athletes can come together to help the athlete succeed while strengthening the fan-athlete relationship."

And: "Further down the scale, you could back Andrew Fitzpatrick, 13th ranked British male player, who in return for £60 will be happy to call you on the phone to discuss your tennis game. "

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-25213772  

Second Serve Points Most Important?

Yet another example of how that cliche' doesn't seem to track. Here, in two quite different matches, the player that did worse on second serve points won (shown in orange) -- Rafa in a laugher on clay, Fed in an extremely tight one on fast hard courts. 

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Jim McLennan
Essential Tennis Instruction
Tennis Director Fremont Hills
http://www.justtennislessons.com