Getting the job done – Rafa advances to the Australian Open finals
Roger and Rafa have given us (yes they play, but really these matches are gifts) some incredible tennis over the years. Wimbledon, Roland Garros, and now two matches here in Melbourne, the finals a few years ago (yet another 5 set masterpiece) and now this spell binding four set struggle.
The lead up to this match presented a few contrasts. Federer had looked brilliant in his straight set dispatch of Juan Martin del Potro – and within this match Fed traded flashing ground strokes matching power for power, all punctuated by incredible sidespin serves to the deuce court and booming topspin backhand winners. Roger had remarked in an interview that he doesn’t necessarily work on his weaknesses (implying the backhand) as those same strokes become stronger because the opponents direct most of their play in that direction. But still whether he works on it, or it simply improves on his own – this guy hits a REAL one-handed topspin backhand.
Rafa has still been nursing wounds inflicted by his losses to Djokovic in the previous year. In capturing the 2010 US Open (over Djokovic in four sets) he appeared to have changed his service motion and added considerable speed to the delivery, with many serves reaching if not exceeding 130mph. But in 2011 that same delivery had become ever so slightly suspect, with less ball speed, less penetration, and as a result less free points. Though we cannot overlook the difficulty of serving to the best absolute serve returner in the history of the game – Novak.
So we know Rafa captured another one, and is now 8 and 2 against Federer in Grand Slam tournaments. And as ever, the match was a brilliant display of movement, angles, offense, defense, unbelievable winners, and some really other worldly winners from impossible situations (yes that is Rafa for sure).
Perhaps the match statistics may tell part of the story. And as ever, the art with statistics is not in the presentation but rather in the interpretation – so as usual I am going out on a limb. Rafa got this particular job done but serving an inordinately high percentage of first serves. That and nothing more, to my mind, tells the story of this match.
Rafa won 146 points overall, with 34 unforced errors and 36 winners. Roger won 130 points, making 63 errors with just 46 winners – and to beat this Spanish Bull one must reduce errors and increase winners. But, the serve stats provide the real eye opener.
Rafa got 77% of his first serves in play, against 64% for Roger.
Taking this further Roger had to play 49 points on his second serve, where Rafa played just 32 points on his second serve.
Pressure is always cumulative, and to my mind this swing of first and second serves told the story. But there is more. Of the 75 points won by Rafa on first serve, 33 occurred when serving down the middle to the Tee in the deuce court, and 21 occurred when serving out wide to the ad court (in both instances to Feds backhand wing).
As to the art of winning, consider the role of the first point in every game influencing momentum, pressure and more. Certainly it is much easier for you and I to serve when calling the score 15-love, and it must be (it truly must be) that many of those 33 points won to the backhand in the deuce court created an early service lead.
Brad Gilbert may have summed up this match well, saying, “Somehow Andre seemed to bring out the best in Pete (certainly that was true in their US Open contest though the same cannot be said that Pete brought out the best in Andre) and now it appears that Roger brings out the best in Rafa.” How true.
For the other semifinal – I believe it will be close, everyone agrees that Murray must be more aggressive. But as to stats, Murray must exceed 70% first serves, and must convert more than 50% of the points on his second serve, or Novak will move on.






